Views:0 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-06-11 Origin:Site
"Fourteenth Five-Year Plan": The first five-year plan to build a new domestic and international dual-cycle development pattern
Amidst major changes unseen in a century, China faces brand new strategic opportunities. We have outstanding leadership, strong cohesion, efficient mobilization, firm execution and other endogenous forces of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strong driving force brought by continuous and comprehensive deepening of reforms, and the world's most complete and largest industry The system has strong production capacity, complete supporting capabilities, the most industrious and huge human resources, and a strong market with 1.4 billion people and 400 million middle-income groups. As long as we make good use of these advantages, we will be able to overcome various risks and challenges in a century of great changes.
In the face of major changes in the world unseen in a century, especially the escalating strategic containment of China by the United States, as well as the actual situation that the domestic economic cycle is facing many obstacles, a new development pattern must be constructed to maintain sustained and stable economic development. This is also an inevitable choice for a major country's economic development to a certain stage, and it is our active choice.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China reviewed and approved the "Proposals of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-Term Goals for 2035" (referred to as the "14th Five-Year Plan" Proposal" ), which condenses the consensus of the whole party and the whole society, is the party's action plan for leading economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, is the grand blueprint for national development, and is the basic basis for the government to perform its duties.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" accelerates the establishment of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles
Constructing a new development pattern is the biggest highlight of the "14th Five-Year Plan". If my country’s active participation in the international cycle has played an important role in achieving the first centenary goal, then building a new development pattern will play a decisive role in achieving the second centenary goal.
In the face of major changes in the world unseen in a century, especially the escalating strategic containment of my country by the United States, and the reality that the domestic economic cycle is facing many obstacles, to maintain sustained and stable economic development, a new development pattern must be constructed. This is also an inevitable choice for a major country's economic development to a certain stage, and it is our active choice. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is the program of action for national development, and the establishment of a new development pattern is the program's program, which has the positioning of the program. Constructing a new development pattern is consistent with promoting high-quality development, transforming development methods, optimizing economic structure, transforming growth momentum, supply-side structural reforms, and adhering to the strategic base of expanding domestic demand. It is progressive and not a substitute.
The development pattern can be observed from different dimensions. To build a new development pattern, we must first understand what the current development pattern looks like. Here, I mainly use the 2017 input-output table of the National Bureau of Statistics to talk about the situation and understanding.
First, the pattern of supply and demand. The balance of supply and demand is a necessary condition for economic cycles. In 2017, my country's total supply, namely domestic "total output-intermediate use + imports", was 97.2 trillion yuan, and total demand, namely "consumption + investment + exports", was also 97.2 trillion yuan. The total supply and total demand are balanced. However, if import and export are not considered, the total domestic supply, that is, the total domestic output minus the intermediate use, is 82.32 trillion; the total domestic demand, that is, "consumption + investment" is 80.86 trillion, and the total supply is greater than the total domestic demand by 1.45 trillion. It is the difference between exports minus imports. If the growth of domestic demand is slower than the growth of total domestic output in the future, we must rely on export growth to fill the gap in domestic demand. However, if exports are blocked, the extra output will become excess capacity without demand, and growth will inevitably decline. . This is one of the important factors that contributed to the decline in my country's economic growth after the international financial crisis. Total demand includes household consumption, government consumption, investment, inventory and exports. From the input-output table, the final structure used in my country is 32.95% for residential consumption, 12.73% for government consumption, 36.93% for investment, and 0.55% for inventory. Exports accounted for 16.85%. The final use is a reflection of the demand structure. Obviously, my country's investment demand accounts for a high proportion, and the proportion of residents' consumption demand is too low.
It can be seen that the main problem of the supply and demand pattern is that the consumption demand of residents is too small. To build a new development pattern, we must put the foothold of development on expanding household consumption, so that household consumption grows faster than the growth of output and other demand, and increase the proportion of consumption in total demand.
Second, the pattern of production and consumption. Only by matching the structure of production and consumption can the balance of production and consumption be realized. Insufficient consumption, in addition to the low proportion of income and declining consumption rate, it can be found from the input-output table that my country's production structure and consumption structure are not suitable. Among the 149 industries in my country, in terms of end use, 68 industries are consumer industries, 22 are investment industries, 58 are export industries, and 1 industry cannot be classified without data. Comparing the import dependence of various industries, that is, the proportion of the industry's imports in the total output of the industry, we can see that many industries with high import dependence are consumer industries. For example, water passenger transportation is a typical consumer industry, with 82.22% of consumption, but its dependence on imports is as high as 131.86%, indicating that the industry's domestic supply is seriously insufficient. Air passenger transportation is a consumer industry, with a proportion of 59.26% for consumption and 83.6% of import dependence. In addition, accommodation, press and publishing, culture and art, sports, and entertainment are all consumer industries, and the import dependence of these industries is also between 10% and 30%. Daily chemicals is a consumer-oriented industry, with 80.45% for consumption and 23% import dependence, indicating that my country's cosmetics are imported in large quantities. The high degree of dependence on imports of accommodation indicates a serious shortage of domestic tourist destinations. In 2019, the number of people leaving the country for private trips reached 160 million, which not only shows that Chinese people are rich, but also that domestic tourist destinations cannot meet the demand. Education and medical care is also a typical consumer industry, but more and more people are going abroad to study, check up, and see a doctor, indicating that there is insufficient quality supply. According to the "Market Prospects and Investment Research Report of China's Cross-border E-commerce Industry in 2020" by the China Business Industry Research Institute, it is estimated that my country's overseas online shopping consumption will reach 280 billion US dollars in 2020, indicating that the domestic supply of high-end consumer goods is insufficient. None of the industries listed above are due to insufficient supply due to insufficient technological innovation. Therefore, in terms of total output, China's total output is greater than the total domestic demand, but the output structure of consumer goods and services does not fit the consumption structure. There are consumer demands in many areas, but they are not produced.
It can be seen that the problem of the pattern of production and consumption is mainly that the industrial structure and production structure do not adapt to the consumption structure and the trend of consumption upgrading. To build a new development pattern, we must adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, increase the proportion of the consumer goods industry in the national economy, and increase the proportion of mid-to-high-end products and services in the consumer goods industry in the industry.
In addition, the distribution and expenditure patterns, domestic and international patterns, etc. are worthy of in-depth study. In short, building a new development pattern is a strategic plan of the Party Central Committee for my country's economic development in accordance with the general development trends at home and abroad, a strategic positioning for China's future economy, and a strategic deployment related to the overall situation of China's modernization drive. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is the first five-year plan to build a new development pattern.